Research

At the SMaLL research group, our work lies at the intersection of statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. We are driven by a dual mission: to push the boundaries of AI by developing novel, powerful, and principled methods, and to solve pressing real-world problems across a range of scientific and societal domains.

Our research is grounded in a deep understanding of statistical theory, which allows us to build machine learning models that are not only accurate but also reliable, interpretable, and robust. We focus on three core areas: developing trustworthy AI, advancing core ML methodologies, and applying these innovations to achieve interdisciplinary impact.

Trustworthy & Reliable AI: Uncertainty, Interpretability, and Calibration

A central theme of our research is moving beyond simple point predictions to create AI systems that understand and communicate their own uncertainty. We believe this is essential for applications in science, medicine, and beyond.

Uncertainty Quantification & Conformal Prediction: We develop cutting-edge techniques for creating statistically valid prediction intervals and confidence sets. Our work, including methods like CD-split and EPICSCore, provides rigorous, assumption-free uncertainty guarantees via conformal methods, even for complex, high-dimensional data. Recent work broadens this toolkit along several axes: CREDO builds conformalized credal envelopes that separate epistemic from aleatoric uncertainty, LoBoost delivers fast model-native local intervals for gradient-boosted trees, LOCUS targets risk-aware predictions through a distribution-free loss-quantile score, and we extend valid prediction regions to compositional data and skewed responses.
Interpretability and Explainable AI (XAI): We design methods to open the “black box” of complex models like neural networks. Our work on meaningful local explanations (e.g., MeLIME, RFFNet, and NLS) helps users understand why a model makes a particular decision, fostering trust and enabling model debugging.
Model Diagnostics and Calibration: We create tools for rigorously validating and diagnosing machine learning models. This includes techniques for likelihood-free inference (e.g., WALDO, LF2I) and diagnostics for conditional density models (LaDaR), ensuring reliable and well-calibrated probabilistic outputs. We are extending these ideas to generative models used as scientific simulators (trustworthy scientific inference), to locally calibrated credible sets in simulation-based inference (CP4SBI), and to rare events, via diagnostic transport maps.

Core Methodological Advances in Machine Learning

Our foundational work aims to create more flexible, powerful, and efficient learning algorithms.

Conditional Density Estimation (CDE): A cornerstone of our research is the development of nonparametric methods for estimating full outcome distributions given features. Our FlexCode procedure, used by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, is one such example applied in astronomy and beyond. More recently, we have been benchmarking and adapting tabular foundation models for CDE, bringing this new generation of pretrained models to bear on distributional prediction.
Network Science & Graph-based Learning: We develop methods for community detection, hypothesis testing on graphs, and network modeling, with applications ranging from EEG brain data to social networks. Current work targets weighted and sparse networks, including counting communities in weighted stochastic block models, sparsity-aware models for count-weighted networks, and normalized likelihood criteria for model selection.
Dynamics and Spectra of Complex Networks: We study how network structure shapes the collective dynamics unfolding on it — from the synchronization of coupled oscillators, surveyed in our review of the Kuramoto model in complex networks, to the spectral theory underpinning such processes, including the effect of clustering heterogeneity on the spectral density of sparse networks. We also bring machine learning to bear on this question, predicting dynamical observables directly from network structure, and design new structural descriptors such as SVD incidence centrality for directed networks and hypergraphs.
High-Dimensional & Nonparametric Methods: We specialize in “large ( p ), small ( n )” problems, using spectral series, wavelets, and kernel methods. We also design efficient algorithms like ExactBoost and BlockBoost for challenging ML tasks.
Modern AI Architectures: We contribute to model ensembling (NN-Stacking), scalable kernel methods (RFFNet), and the use of variational autoencoders for high-dimensional hypothesis testing.
Causal Inference: We develop nonparametric methods for estimating causal effects from observational data, including approaches based on the front-door criterion for settings with unmeasured confounding.

Interdisciplinary Impact: AI in Action

We are passionate about applying our methods to solve concrete problems. Our collaborations span:

Astronomy & Cosmology: Photo-z estimation, galaxy classification, and likelihood-free cosmological inference.
Healthcare & Medicine: Predicting mortality, diagnosing dementia and Parkinson’s (e.g., Goalkeeper Game), modeling infectious diseases, and AI tools for breast cancer risk (PersonalizedUS).
Genetics & Genomics: QTL mapping, feature selection for ALS studies, and interaction detection in complex traits.
Ecology & Environmental Science: Biodiversity quantification, species composition analysis (LDAcov), and population modeling. Network approaches extend this to ecological and climate systems, showing how interspecific competition shapes the structural stability of mutualistic networks and using evolving climate networks to trace the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions on global temperature.
Law, Social Science & Sports Analytics: Quantifying legal “loss of a chance”, modeling judicial decisions, and predicting football match outcomes, including approaches that combine complex networks with machine learning.
Computational Neuroscience: Modeling spiking activity with stochastic chains of variable-length memory: inferring effective connectivity between neurons, consistently selecting models of functional interaction, and identifying astrocytic signatures in neuronal recordings. We also approach the brain as a complex network, relating structure and function across artificial, zebrafish and human neural systems.
Insurance & Actuarial Science: Actuarial learning for pension-fund mortality forecasting and conformal prediction for frequency–severity modeling of insurance claims.
Materials Science:
Predicting properties of glass materials to guide new compositions, quantifying oxide glass similarity through learned distances, building datasets by mining patents, and automating the microscopic analysis of cement clinker — always incorporating uncertainty for robust scientific inference.

Bayesian Foundations and Logical Coherence

Our approach is deeply Bayesian and committed to logical rigor. We believe this foundation leads to better, more coherent statistical and AI models.

Foundations of Inference: We explore statistical decision theory, value of information, and imprecise probability models.
Logically-Consistent Hypothesis Testing: We develop coherent frameworks for multiple hypothesis testing that avoid contradictions. Tools like REACT support interpretable and practical alternatives to p-values.

Here is a list of our papers from the last 5 years — the complete list can be downloaded here.

2026	Santos, Milene Regina dos; Izbicki, Rafael; . Expertise-based weighting for regression models with noisy labels. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation
2026	Motta, Flávia Castro; Montoril, Michel H; . A Bayesian estimation approach for the wavelet-based mixture regression. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation
2026	Marques F, Paulo C; Graziadei, Helton; . Skew-adaptive conformal prediction. arXiv e-prints
2026	Artes, Rinaldo; Graziadei, Helton; . Projected random forests and conformal prediction of circular data. Knowledge-Based Systems
2026	de Melo, Fraga L; Graziadei, Helton; Targino, Rodrigo; . Annuity Table Validation in Pension Funds: A Comparative Power Analysis of Goodness-of-Fit Tests. Helton and Targino, Rodrigo, Annuity Table Validation in Pension Funds: A Comparative Power Analysis of Goodness-of-Fit Tests (April 28, 2026)
2026	Graziadei, Helton; . Skew-adaptive conformal prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.16145
2026	Cerqueira, Andressa; Baptistão, Felipe; . Normalized Likelihood Criteria for Model Selection in the Stochastic Block Model. arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.10205
2026	Braga, Ribanna AM; Alvarenga, Livia; Aldin, Marlene N; Leite, Jean Michel RS; Pereira, Jaqueline L; Cerqueira, Andressa; Fisberg, Regina M; Rogero, Marcelo M; Sarti, Flavia M; Damasceno, Nágila RT; . Exploratory genome-wide analysis suggests potential associations of PPP1R12B, FSTL5, G5K3B, and GFRA2 loci with a derived HDL functionality score. Journal of Clinical Lipidology
2026	Franco, Jorge Luiz; Peron, Thomas; Col, Alcebiades Dal; Petronetto, Fabiano; Verri, Filipe Alves Neto; Tokuda, Eric K; Nonato, Luiz Gustavo; . SVD Incidence Centrality: A Unified Spectral Framework for Node and Edge Analysis in Directed Networks and Hypergraphs. arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.15736
2026	Santos, Vagner; Coscrato, Victor; Cabezas, Luben; Izbicki, Rafael; Ramos, Thiago; . LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees. arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.22432
2026	Barreto, Matheus; de Castro, Mário; Ramos, Thiago R; Valle, Denis; Izbicki, Rafael; . LOCUS: A Distribution-Free Loss-Quantile Score for Risk-Aware Predictions. arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.01971
2026	Cabezas, Luben; Sloman, Sabina J; Resende, Bruno M; Wu, Fanyi; Caprio, Michele; Izbicki, Rafael; . CREDO: Epistemic-Aware Conformalized Credal Envelopes for Regression. arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.06826
2026	Cucuzzella, Elizabeth; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Trustworthy predictive distributions for rare events via diagnostic transport maps. arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.11229
2026	Izbicki, Rafael; Rodrigues, Pedro LC; . Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regression. arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.26611
2026	Comito, Mateus Borges; Izbicki, Rafael; Junior, Paulo do Canto Hubert; Moura, Filipe; . Improving decision-making in construction: Nonparametric modeling of weather-induced impacts. Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications
2026	Kanno, Gustavo de Oliveira; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Variáveis instrumentais na inferência causal.
2026	Stern, Rafael Bassi; Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; . Posterior Invariance of Multiplicative Contrasts under Margin Constraints in Contingency Tables. arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.24490
2026	Valença, Raquel R; Nakazono, Lilianne; Izbicki, Rafael; Inácio, Marco Henrique de Almeida; da Silva, Maycon Jorge Deláqua; Lins, Kiana Coimbra Buin; Cardoso, Natanael M; de Oliveira, Claudia Mendes; . Tabular foundation models for the estimation of probabilistic quasar photometric redshifts in S-PLUS. arXiv preprint arXiv:2608.10280
2026	Nakazono, L; Valença, R; Perin, G Jacob; Izbicki, R; Hirata, NST; Ivezić, Ž; de Oliveira, C Mendes; . Massive photometric catalogs for S-PLUS: object classification and quasar photometric redshifts. Revista Mexicana de Astrofísica y Astronomía Serie de Conferencias
2026	Andrade, Isaac Emanuel Costa de; Rodrigues, Renan Vinicius; Silva, Thiago Nátalys Ribeiro; da Paz, Rosineide Fernando; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; . Segmentation and classification of clinker crystals in microscopic images by statistical learning methods. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology
2026	Ramos, Thiago R; Graziadei, Helton; Cabezas, Luben; . Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws. arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.19024
2026	Rosante, Rafael Baságlia; Thomaello, Gustavo Laranja; Aguena, Thomaz Yeiden Busnardo; Ramos, Thiago Rodrigo; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; Zanotto, Edgar Dutra; . Quantifying oxide glass similarity through learned distances: a SHAP-based Earth Mover’s Distance. Journal of Non-Crystalline Solids
2026	Motta, Flávia Castro; Montoril, Michel H; . Identifying regime switches through Bayesian wavelet estimation: application to environmental and genetic data. Journal of Applied Statistics
2026	Carzon, James; Ghosh, Aishik; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; Masserano, Luca; Whiteson, Daniel; . On focusing statistical power for searches and measurements in particle physics. The European Physical Journal C
2026	Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Stern, Rafael B; . Elicitation for sets of probabilities and distributions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
2026	Graziadei, Helton; Marques F, Paulo C; de Melo, Eduardo FL; Targino, Rodrigo S; . Conformal prediction for frequency-severity modeling. Journal of Applied Statistics
2025	Santos, Tiago Mendonça dos; Izbicki, Rafael; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . DiNo and RanBu: Lightweight Predictions from Shallow Random Forests. arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.23624
2025	Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Andrews, Brett H; Newman, Jeffrey A; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Towards instance-wise calibration: local amortized diagnostics and reshaping of conditional densities (LADaR). Machine Learning: Science and Technology
2025	Mendonça dos Santos, Tiago; Izbicki, Rafael; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . DiNo and RanBu: Lightweight Predictions from Shallow Random Forests. arXiv e-prints
2025	Corrêa, Fernando; Stern, Julio Michael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Nonparametric Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Bayesian Histograms. Physical Sciences Forum
2025	Schervish, Mark J; Kadane, Joseph B; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Information lost by conditioning on the random margins in a two-by-two table. Biometrika
2025	Fumis, André AF; Fossaluza, Victor; Stern, Rafael B; . Covariate balance under Bayesian decision theory. arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.01828
2025	Cabezas, Luben; Santos, Vagner S; Ramos, Thiago R; Rodrigues, Pedro LC; Izbicki, Rafael; . CP4SBI: Local conformal calibration of credible sets in simulation-based inference. arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.17077
2025	Corrêa, Fernando; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Stern, Julio Michael; . Kullback-Leibler Consistency of $ p $-dimensional P\'olya Tree Posteriors and Differential Entropy Estimation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.02950
2025	Oliveira, Deborah; Cerqueira, Andressa; Oliveira, Roberto; . Counting communities in weighted Stochastic Block Models via semidefinite programming. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.15891
2025	Ribeiro, Liliana Escada; Nogueira, Cármen; Antunes, Margarida; Marques, Andréa; Ferreira, Ricardo; . Peer support interaction in people with chronic diseases: nurses’ perspectives and practices. Millenium
2025	Gannon, Mark Andrew; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; de Bragança Pereira, Carlos Alberto; . Mixed-Paradigm Hypothesis Tests. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science
2025	Pirola, Joao Pedro; DeForest, Paige; Protachevicz, Paulo R; Fontenas, Laura; Ferreira, Ricardo F; Pena, Rodrigo FO; . Astrocytic signatures in neuronal activity: a machine learning-based identification approach. Cognitive Neurodynamics
2025	Ferreira, Ricardo F; Pacola, Matheus E; Schiavone, Vitor G; Pena, Rodrigo FO; . Consistent model selection for estimating functional interactions among stochastic neurons with variable-length memory. Neurocomputing
2025	Rocha, Dayane Horta; Sousa, Vanessa Emille Carvalho; Pascoal, Lívia Maia; Montoril, Michelle Helcias; Monteiro, Flávia Paula Magalhães; de Oliveira Lopes, Marcos Venícios; . Impaired gas exchange in patients with unstable angina. Escola Anna Nery Revista de Enfermagem
2025	de Melo, Eduardo Fraga L; Graziadei, Helton; Targino, Rodrigo; . Actuarial Learning for Pension Fund Mortality Forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.05881
2025	Rossi, Carlo Vincenzo Felix; Sillas, Rafael Kronwald; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “APO comparativa, antes e após intervenção construtiva, como ferramenta qualificadora do projeto”.
2025	Godoi, Mateus Beraldo de; Lima, Olian Castanha; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; Fossaluza, Victor; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Efeitos do propofol e isoflurano no funcionamento coclear de suínos domésticos”.
2025	Rodrigues, Francisco A; Peron, Thomas; Connaughton, Colm; Kurths, Jürgen; Moreno, Yamir; . A machine learning approach to predicting dynamical observables from network structure. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
2025	Rodrigues, Francisco A; Peron, Thomas; Connaughton, Colm; Kurths, Jürgen; Moreno, Yamir; . Predicting Dynamical Observables from Network Structure using Machine Learning.
2025	Correa Filho, Fernando Poliano Tarouco; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Another note on the censoring problem: a state of the art assessment and a review of methods for case duration analyses. SSRN Social Science Research Network
2025	Correa Filho, Fernando Poliano Tarouco; Stern, Julio Michael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Nonparametric Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Bayesian histograms. Physical Sciences Forum
2025	Bogoni, Mariella A; Zuanetti, Daiane A; . A Bayesian approach for variable selection in mixture of logistic regressions with Pólya-Gamma data augmentation. Statistical Modelling
2025	dos Santos, Tiago Mendonça; Izbicki, Rafael; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . DiNo and RanBu: Lightweight Predictions from Shallow Random Forests. Available at SSRN 5910738
2025	Segeti, Andrei Antonio; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Camargo, Rodrigo Iavarone; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Desenho institucional da transação tributária federal: análise sobre sua efetividade como solução alternativa de conflitos e os impactos sobre o comportamento dos contribuintes”.
2025	Laranja Thomaello, Gustavo; Yeiden Busnardo Aguena, Thomaz; Trevelato Costa, Eric; Baságlia Rosante, Rafael; Ramos, Thiago Rodrigo; Aparecida Zuanetti, Daiane; Dutra Zanotto, Edgar; . From Patents to Dataset: Scraping for Oxide Glass Compositions and Properties. arXiv e-prints
2025	Thomaello, Gustavo Laranja; Aguena, Thomaz Yeiden Busnardo; Costa, Eric Trevelato; Rosante, Rafael Baságlia; Ramos, Thiago Rodrigo; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; Zanotto, Edgar Dutra; . From Patents to Dataset: Scraping for Oxide Glass Compositions and Properties. arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.16366
2025	Oliveira, Daniela CR; Schumacher, Fernanda L; Oliveira, Marcos S; Zuanetti, Daiane A; Lachos, Victor H; . Revolutionizing high-dimensional regularization: EMLMLasso algorithm for linear mixed-effects models. Proceeding series of the Brazilian society of computational and applied mathematics
2025	Montcho, Djidenou; Zuanetti, Daiane A; Chekouo, Thierry; Milan, Luis A; . Efficient Bayesian variable selection with reversible jump MCMC in imaging genetics: an application to schizophrenia. Journal of Applied Statistics
2025	De Andrade, Isaac Emanuel Costa; Padilha, Renê Michel Santana; Da Paz, Rosineide Fernando; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; . Automated high-resolution microscopy for clinker analysis: A divide-and-conquer deep learning approach with mask R-CNN and PCA for alite measurement. Expert Systems with Applications
2025	Amaral, Lucas P; Cabezas, Luben; Ramos, Thiago R; Pereira, Gustavo HGA; . Conformal Prediction for Compositional Data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.18141
2025	Andrade, Isaac Emanuel Costa de; Padilha, Renê Michel Santana; Paz, Rosineide Fernando da; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; . Automated high-resolution microscopy for clinker analysis:: A divide-and-conquer deep learning approach with mask R-CNN and PCA for alite measurement.
2025	Bittencourt, Fabricio Barbosa; . Provisão de sinistros ocorridos mas não avisados (IBNR) em modelos probabilísticos.
2025	Corrêa, Fernando; Stern, Rafael; . Another Note on the Censoring Problem: A State of the Art Assessment and a Review of Methods for Case Duration Analyses. Available at SSRN 5340259
2025	Cavalcante, Ana PL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Nonparametric estimation of the average causal effect using the front-door criterion. UAI 2025 Workshop on Causal Abstractions and Representations
2025	Carzon, James; Masserano, Luca; Ingram, Joshua D; Shen, Alex; Junior, Antonio Carlos Herling Ribeiro; Dorigo, Tommaso; Doro, Michele; Speagle, Joshua S; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Trustworthy scientific inference with generative models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.02602
2025	Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando; Perezgonzalez, JD; Ospina, Raydonal; Hernandez-Barajas, Freddy; Castillo, Mauricio; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael; Tejada, Julian; . Beyond p-values: Rethinking Statistical Frameworks for Addressing the Replication Crisis.
2025	Di Giusto, Marina; Fumis, André; Bastos, Murilo; Fossaluza, Victor; Stern, Rafael; Mendes Cardoso, Jéssica; Herrscher, Estelle; Jaouen, Klervia; Wesolowski, Veronica; . Dietary variability in Middle Holocene South American shellmounds: Insights from isotopic analysis and an adapted Bayesian MixSIAR model. Plos one
2025	Siniscarchio, Matheus de Castro; Costa, Murilo Fernandes da; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Ocorrência da esporotricose felina no município de São Paulo e a desratização como medida ambiental de controle”.
2025	Corrêa, F; Stern, JM; Stern, RB; . Nonparametric Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Bayesian Histograms. Phys. Sci. Forum
2025	Cerqueira, Andressa; Costa, Laila LS; . Modeling sparsity in count-weighted networks with stochastic block models. Journal of Complex Networks
2025	Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Adding imprecision to hypotheses: A Bayesian framework for testing practical significance in nonparametric settings. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
2025	Fröhlich, Alek; Ramos, Thiago; Dos Santos, Gustavo Motta Cabello; Buzatto, Isabela Panzeri Carlotti; Izbicki, Rafael; Tiezzi, Daniel Guimaraes; . Personalizedus: Interpretable breast cancer risk assessment with local coverage uncertainty quantification. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
2025	Cabezas, Luben MC; Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Regression trees for fast and adaptive prediction intervals. Information Sciences
2025	Dorigo, Tommaso; Aehle, Max; Donini, Julien; Doro, Michele; Gauger, Nicolas R; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann; Masserano, Luca; Nardi, Federico; SS, Sidharth; . End-to-end optimization of the layout of a gamma ray observatory. Nucl. Phys. B
2025	Xiao, Yang; Soares, Guilherme; Bastos, Leonardo; Izbicki, Rafael; Moraga, Paula; . Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
2025	Dorigo, Tommaso; Doro, Michele; Aehle, Max; Awais, Muhammad; Gauger, Nicolas R; Izbicki, Rafael; Kieseler, Jan; Lee, Ann B; Masserano, Luca; Nardi, Federico; . On the utility function of experiments in fundamental science. Physics Open
2025	Cabezas, Luben; Santos, Vagner S; Ramos, Thiago R; Izbicki, Rafael; . Epistemic uncertainty in conformal scores: A unified approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.06995
2025	Dorigo, Tommaso; Aehle, Max; Arcaro, Cornelia; Awais, Muhammad; Bergamaschi, Fabiola; Donini, Julien; Doro, Michele; Gauger, Nicolas R; Izbicki, Rafael; Kieseler, Jan; . Toward the end-to-end optimization of the SWGO array layout. Nuclear Physics B
2025	Seidenfeld, Teddy; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Stern, Rafael B; . Finite additivity, complete additivity, and the comparative principle. Erkenntnis
2025	Valle, Denis; Haneda, Leo; Izbicki, Rafael; Kamimura, Renan Akio; de Azevedo, Bruna Pereira; Gomes, Silvio HM; Sanchez, Arthur; Silva, Carlos A; Almeida, Danilo RA; . Nonparametric quantification of uncertainty in multistep upscaling approaches: A case study on estimating forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon. Science of Remote Sensing
2025	Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; . Nonparametric fbst for validating linear models. Physical Sciences Forum
2025	Cavaliere, Yasmin F; Esteves, Luís G; Fossaluza, Victor; . An axiomatic development of Pereira-Stern e-value as a measure of support for statistical hypotheses. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
2024	Dalmasso, Niccolò; Masserano, Luca; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference. Electronic Journal of Statistics
2024	Dheur, Victor; Bosser, Tanguy; Izbicki, Rafael; Ben Taieb, Souhaib; . Distribution-free conformal joint prediction regions for neural marked temporal point processes. Machine Learning
2024	Grivol, Gustavo; Izbicki, Rafael; Okuno, Alex A; Stern, Rafael B; . Flexible conditional density estimation for time series. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
2024	Assunção, Gabriel O; Izbicki, Rafael; Prates, Marcos O; . Is augmentation effective in improving prediction in imbalanced datasets?. Journal of Data Science
2024	Gomes, Izadora de Geus Monteiro; Peixoto, Nara Gabriela de Mesquita; Monteiro, Leonardo Marques; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Influência do ambiente construído nos níveis sonoros e percepção de conforto acústico nos espaços públicos na cidade de São Paulo".
2024	Silva, João Flávio Andrade; Izbicki, Rafael; Bastos, Leonardo S; Soares, Guilherme P; . Monitoring viral infections in severe acute respiratory syndrome patients in Brazil. International Workshop on Statistical Modelling
2024	Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, Joao Vitor; . Split conformal prediction and non-exchangeable data. Journal of Machine Learning Research
2024	Valle, Denis; Leite, Rodrigo; Izbicki, Rafael; Silva, Carlos; Haneda, Leo; . Local uncertainty maps for land-use/land-cover classification without remote sensing and modeling work using a class-conditional conformal approach. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
2024	Ramos, Thiago; Schuller, Rodrigo Loro; Okuno, Alex Akira; Nissenbaum, Lucas; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . BlockBoost: Scalable and Efficient Blocking through Boosting. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
2024	Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . PROTEST: Nonparametric Testing of Hypotheses Enhanced by Experts' Utility Judgements. arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.05655
2024	Shimizu, Gilson Y; Izbicki, Rafael; Valle, Denis; . A new LDA formulation with covariates. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation
2024	Masserano, Luca; Shen, Alex; Doro, Michele; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Classification under nuisance parameters and generalized label shift in likelihood-free inference. arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.05330
2024	Peron, Thomas; . The networkness of the brain. Comment on" Does the brain behave like a (complex) network? I. Dynamics" by Papo and Buldú. Physics of Life Reviews
2024	Pham, Tuan Minh; Peron, Thomas; Metz, Fernando L; . Effects of clustering heterogeneity on the spectral density of sparse networks. Physical Review E
2024	Baratela, Eduardo Alves; Xavier, Felipe Jordão; Peron, Thomas; Ribeiro Villas-Boas, Paulino; Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido; . Predicting soccer matches with complex networks and machine learning. Journal of Complex Networks
2024	Amorim, Marcus Ruy de; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto:“Bem-estar e projetos de vida de jovens do ensino médio no contexto da pandemia de covid-19: um estudo exploratório dos modelos organizadores do pensamento”.
2024	Coscrato, Victor; . Uncertainty in Recommender Systems.
2024	Ribeiro, Leonardo; Zuanetti, Drª Daiane Aparecida; Vieira, Afraˆnio Marcio Correˆa; Ferreira, Ricardo Felipe; . Comparação de penetrômetros e identificação de fatores na resistência mecânica do solo à penetração via modelos mistos. Leonardo
2024	Alves Baratela, Eduardo; Jordão Xavier, Felipe; Peron, Thomas; Ribeiro Villas-Boas, Paulino; Aparecido Rodrigues, Francisco; . Predicting soccer matches with complex networks and machine learning. arXiv e-prints
2024	Flórez Rivera, Andrés Felipe; Esteves, Luis Gustavo; Fossaluza, Victor; de Bragança Pereira, Carlos Alberto; . On the nuisance parameter elimination principle in hypothesis testing. Entropy
2024	Freitas, Ana Caroline Oliveira de; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Estudo de correlação clínica, patológica e radiológica de neoplasias diagnosticadas em autopsias realizadas pelo Departamento de Patologia da Universidade de São Paulo, no período de 2007 a 2023".
2024	Coscrato, Victor; Bridge, Derek; . Supplier Recommendation in Online Procurement. arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.01301
2024	Silval, João Flávio Andrade; Izbicki, Rafael; Bastos, Leonardo S; . Acute Respiratory Syndrome Patients. Developments in Statistical Modelling
2024	Hassan, Waqar; Cabral, Marvin Mendes; Ramos, Thiago Rodrigo; Filho, Antonio Castelo; Nonato, Luis Gustavo; . Modeling and predicting crimes in the city of São Paulo using graph neural networks. Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems
2024	Cabezas, Luben; Soares, Guilherme P; Ramos, Thiago R; Stern, Rafael B; Izbicki, Rafael; . Conformal calibration of statistical confidence sets. arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.19368
2024	Cruz Cabezas, Luben; Otto, Mateus Piovezan; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael; . Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals. Mateus Piovezan and Izbicki, Rafael and Stern, Rafael, Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
2024	Paz, Rosineide Fernando da; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; Rodrigues, Renan Vinicius; Mesquita, Esequiel; . Mixed Model and Gaussian Process to Investigate the External Influence on the Propagation Time of Ultrasonic Waves on Masonry Walls. Journal of Data Science
2024	Cunha, Robson Ortz Oliveira; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Modelo Hierárquico Bayesiano Não Paramétrico Aplicado em Modelagem de Tópicos.
2024	Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Diagnóstico sobre a devolução de crianças e adolescentes em estágio de convivência e adotadas.
2024	Cabezas, Luben; Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Regression trees for fast and adaptive prediction intervals. arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.07357
2024	Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Adding imprecision to hypotheses: A Bayesian framework for testing practical significance in nonparametric settings. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING
2024	Travieso, Gonzalo; Oliveira, Maria Vithória; Peron, Thomas Kauê Dal’Maso; . Influência de características topológicas na dinâmica de redes neurais. Livro de Resumos
2024	Izzi, João VR; Ferreira, Ricardo F; Girardi, Victor A; Pena, Rodrigo FO; . Identifying effective connectivity between stochastic neurons with variable-length memory using a transfer entropy rate estimator. Brain Sciences
2024	Cerqueira, Andressa; Costa, Laila LS; . Modeling sparsity in count-weighted networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.03100
2024	Pereira, Jaqueline L; de Souza, Camila A; Neyra, Jennyfer EM; Leite, Jean MRS; Cerqueira, Andressa; Mingroni-Netto, Regina C; Soler, Julia MP; Rogero, Marcelo M; Sarti, Flavia M; Fisberg, Regina M; . Genetic ancestry and self-reported “Skin Color/Race” in the urban admixed population of São Paulo City, Brazil. Genes
2024	Damasceno, Nagila; Aldin, Marlene; Leite, Jean; Pereira, Jaqueline; Cerqueira, Andressa; Fisberg, Regina; Rogero, Marcelo; Sarti, Flavia; . A genome-wide association study explains atherogenic risk of Brazilian individuals associated with HDL functionality: Health survey of Sao Paulo. Atherosclerosis
2024	Ribeiro, Adele H; Crnkovic, Milena; Pereira, Jaqueline Lopes; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Sarti, Flavia Mori; Rogero, Marcelo Macedo; Heider, Dominik; Cerqueira, Andressa; . AnchorFCI: harnessing genetic anchors for enhanced causal discovery of cardiometabolic disease pathways. Frontiers in Genetics
2024	Campos, Bruno Kinsch de Lara; Gallo, Daniel Monteiro; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Multilateralismo, regionalismo e democracia: o uso das estratégias de shaming nas missões de observação eleitoral da OEA".
2024	Nakazono, L; R Valença, R; Soares, G; Izbicki, Rafael; Ivezić, Željko; R Lima, EV; T Hirata, NS; Sodré Jr, L; Overzier, Roderik; Almeida-Fernandes, F; . The Quasar Catalogue for S-PLUS DR4 (QuCatS) and the estimation of photometric redshifts. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
2024	Cabezas, Luben; Soares, Guilherme P; Ramos, Thiago R; Stern, Rafael B; Izbicki, Rafael; . Distribution-free calibration of statistical confidence sets. arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.19368
2023	Sabillón, Gustavo Alexis; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; . Analyzing the rainfall pattern in Honduras through non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. Journal of Data Science
2023	Mangerona, Robson Alves; . A estatística no futebol: uma análise dos principais fatores que influenciam o número de gols feitos pelos jogadores no campeonato inglês.
2023	Sabillón, Gustavo Alexis; Cotrim, Luiz Gabriel Fernandes; Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; . A data-driven reversible jump for estimating a finite mixture of regression models: GA Sabillón et al.. TEST
2023	Cerqueira, Andressa; Leonardi, Florencia; . Optimal recovery by maximum and integrated conditional likelihood in the general Stochastic Block Model. arXiv preprint arXiv:2311.10153
2023	Ji, Peng; Wang, Yufan; Peron, Thomas; Li, Chunhe; Nagler, Jan; Du, Jiulin; . Structure and function in artificial, zebrafish and human neural networks. Physics of Life Reviews
2023	Casaca, Wallace; Papa, João Paulo; Colnago, Marilaine; Peron, Thomas; Amaral, Fabio; Freire, Livia; Busnello, Homero; Nonato, Luis Gustavo; Bruzadin, Aldimir; Castelo Filho, Antonio; . Leak Detection in Hermetic Compressors using Computer Vision and Artificial Intelligence.
2023	Coscrato, V; Bridge, D; Li, X; Xiao, G; Chen, Y; Tang, Z; Jiang, W; Li, K; Zhou, X; Sun, A; . Recommender systems. ACM Transactions on
2023	Coscrato, Victor; Bridge, Derek; . Estimating and evaluating the uncertainty of rating predictions and top-n recommendations in recommender systems. ACM Transactions on Recommender Systems
2023	Mueller, Natalie; Anderle, Rodrigo; Brachowicz, Nicolai; Graziadei, Helton; Lloyd, Simon J; de Sampaio Morais, Gabriel; Sironi, Alberto Pietro; Gibert, Karina; Tonne, Cathryn; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; . Model choice for quantitative health impact assessment and modelling: an expert consultation and narrative literature review. International journal of health policy and Management
2023	Vitor, Ayrton Amaral Alves; Pereira, Carlos Alberto de Bragança; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; Bonetto, Manuela Costa Pires; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Avaliação pós ocupação como ferramenta avaliativa de projetos integrados de reforma".
2023	Alencar, Bianca Siqueira; Gouveia, Estevão Monteiro Días; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; Coelho, Mateus Schimidt; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Explorando a influência da extroversão-introversão e o grau de stress de consumidores na percepção de campanhas publicitárias".
2023	dos Santos, Milene Regina; Izbicki, Rafael; . Expertise-based weighting for regression models with noisy labels. arXiv e-prints
2023	Cerqueira, Andressa; Levina, Elizaveta; . A pseudo-likelihood approach to community detection in weighted networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.05909
2023	Cabezas, Luben MC; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Hierarchical clustering: Visualization, feature importance and model selection. Applied Soft Computing
2023	McNeely, Trey; Vincent, Galen; Wood, Kimberly M; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Detecting distributional differences in labeled sequence data with application to tropical cyclone satellite imagery. The Annals of Applied Statistics
2023	Polo, Felipe Maia; Izbicki, Rafael; Lacerda Jr, Evanildo Gomes; Ibieta-Jimenez, Juan Pablo; Vicente, Renato; . A unified framework for dataset shift diagnostics. Information Sciences
2023	Csillag, Daniel; Paes, Lucas Monteiro; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; Schuller, Rodrigo; Seixas, Roberto B; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . AmnioML: amniotic fluid segmentation and volume prediction with uncertainty quantification. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
2023	Cabezas, Luben Miguel Cruz; Otto, Mateus Piovezan; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Toward local and valid uncertainty estimation in machine learning. Livro de Resumos
2023	Silva, Alexandre Felix da; Maciel, Emanuel Hark; Aragão, Emerson da Silva; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Fossaluza, Victor; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Risco de perda em ações judiciais".
2023	Nakazono, Lilianne; Ruiz, Raquel; Soares, Gabriela; Izbicki, Rafael; Ivezic, Zeljko; Mendes de Oliveira, Claudia; . Redshift estimation of quasars using 12-band photometry from S-PLUS. American Astronomical Society Meeting Abstracts
2023	Dalmasso, Niccolò; Masserano, Luca; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: Confidence sets with correct conditional coverage. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.03920
2023	Motta, Flávia Castro; Montoril, Michel Helcias; . Identifying regime switches through Bayesian wavelet estimation: evidence from flood detection in the Taquari River Valley. arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.14828
2023	Coscrato, Victor; Inacio, Marco HA; Botari, Tiago; Izbicki, Rafael; . NLS: An accurate and yet easy-to-interpret prediction method. Neural Networks
2023	Esteves, Luís G; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; . Logical coherence in Bayesian simultaneous three-way hypothesis tests. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
2023	Assunção, Gabriel O; Izbicki, Rafael; Prates, Marcos O; . Is augmentation effective to improve prediction in imbalanced text datasets?. arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.10283
2023	Belitsky, Ian Tikkanen; Kodono, Juliana Tiemi Oda; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Alves, Tamires Vieira; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Análise quimiométrica de seletividade nos sítios ativos de cisteíno proteases da família da papaína para o estudo de substâncias antiparasitárias e antineoplásicas".
2023	Izbicki, Rafael; Cabezas, Luben; Colugnatti, Fernando AB; Lassance, Rodrigo FL; de Souza, Altay AL; Stern, Rafael B; . REACT to NHST: Sensible conclusions to meaningful hypotheses. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.09112
2023	Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey; Andrews, Brett; Lee, Ann; Izbicki, Rafael; . Calibrated Predictive Distributions. APS April Meeting Abstracts
2023	Wang, Xiangrong; Peron, Thomas; Dubbeldam, Johan LA; Kéfi, Sonia; Moreno, Yamir; . Interspecific competition shapes the structural stability of mutualistic networks. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
2023	Reis, Victor Candido; Izbicki, Rafael; . Spectral smooth tests for goodness-of-fit. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.06601
2023	Valle, Denis; Izbicki, Rafael; Leite, Rodrigo Vieira; . Quantifying uncertainty in land-use land-cover classification using conformal statistics. Remote Sensing of Environment
2023	Cerqueira, Andressa; Gallo, Sandro; Leonardi, Florencia; Vera, Cristel; . Consistent model selection for the degree corrected stochastic blockmodel. arXiv preprint arXiv:2302.03734
2023	Montcho, Djidenou; Zuanetti, Daiane; Chekouo, Thierry; Milan, Luis; . Bayesian variable selection using an informed reversible jump in imaging genetics: an application to schizophrenia. arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.01134
2022	Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . The Value Provided by a Scientific Explanation. Reflections on the Foundations of Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of Teddy Seidenfeld
2022	Inacio, M; Izbicki, R; Lopes, D; Diniz, MA; Salasar, LE; Ferreira, JCP; . What if the forecaster knew? Assessing forecast reliability via simulation. Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics
2022	Masserano, Luca; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Kuusela, Mikael; Lee, Ann B; . Simulation-based inference with Waldo: Perfectly calibrated confidence regions using any prediction or posterior estimation algorithm. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.15680
2022	Stern, Julio Michael; Pereira, Carlos Alberto de Braganca; Lauretto, Marcelo de Souza; Esteves, Luis Gustavo; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Diniz, Marcio Alves; Borges, Wagner de Souza; . The e-value and the full Bayesian significance test: logical properties and philosophical consequences. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.08010
2022	da Silva Ferreira, Clécio; Montoril, Michel H; Paula, Gilberto A; . Partially linear models with p-order autoregressive skew-normal errors. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
2022	Fumis, André Americano de Freitas; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Fossaluza, Victor; Lima, Vitor Hugo Vieira de; . Relatório de Análise Estatística sobre o Projeto Uma bioarqueologia da infância: Apontamentos sobre a dieta infantil entre sambaquieiros através da análise de isótopos estáveis de δ15N e δ13C”.
2022	Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael B; . Learning and total evidence with imprecise probabilities. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
2022	Reimann, Bernardo F; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; Esteves, Luís G; . Logical coherence in Bayesian simultaneous three-way hypothesis tests. arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.01495
2022	Teeselink, Bouke Klein; van Dolder, Dennie; van den Assem, Martijn J; Dana, Jason; . High-Stakes Failures of Backward Induction: Evidence from" The Price Is Right".
2022	Izbicki, Rafael; Shimizu, Gilson; Stern, Rafael B; . Cd-split and hpd-split: Efficient conformal regions in high dimensions. Journal of Machine Learning Research
2022	Hoyos, Alejandra E Patiño; Fossaluza, Victor; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; de Bragança Pereira, Carlos Alberto; . Adaptive significance levels in tests for linear regression models: The e-value and p-value cases. Entropy
2022	Coscrato, Victor; Bridge, Derek; . Recommendation uncertainty in implicit feedback recommender systems. Irish Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science
2022	Metz, Fernando L; Peron, Thomas; . Mean-field theory of vector spin models on networks with arbitrary degree distributions. Journal of Physics: Complexity
2022	Li, Qiang; Peron, Thomas; Stankovski, Tomislav; Ji, Peng; . Effects of structural modifications on cluster synchronization patterns: Q. Li et al.. Nonlinear Dynamics
2022	Martins, Thomas Correa; . Bayesian inference for term structure models.
2022	Soares, Gabriela Pereira; de Curso, Trabalho de Conclusao; Izbicki, Rafael; Sodre, Laerte; Stern, Rafael; . Uma abordagem estatística sobre a estimação de redshifts de quasares usando dados do S-PLUS.
2022	Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; Milan, Luis Aparecido; . A new Bayesian approach for QTL mapping of family data. Journal of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology
2022	C. Marques F, Paulo; Graziadei, Helton; Lopes, Hedibert F; . Bayesian generalizations of the integer-valued autoregressive model. Journal of Applied Statistics
2022	Esteves, Luís Gustavo; Pedroni, Marcos Caires; Fernandes, Maria Teresa Bechere; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Avaliação do estado nutricional de crianças de 2 a 12 anos de idade que frequentam o ambulatório de pediatria do Centro de Saúde Escolar Samuel B. Pessoa”.
2022	Moreira, João Pedro de Freitas Feliciano; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Associação entre excesso de peso e evolução clínica durante internação em um hospital geral pediátrico”.
2022	de Oliveira, Fabiana Luci; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Noli, Ana Fernanda; . Processo decisório do Supremo Tribunal Federal na transição democrática brasileira (1978-1988). Revista de Estudos Empíricos em Direito
2022	Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Andrews, Brett; Newman, Jeffrey; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann; . Calibrated predictive distributions for photometric redshifts. Machine Learning for Astrophysics, proceedings of the Thirty-ninth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2022)
2022	Csillag, Daniel; Piazza, Carolina; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . ExactBoost: Directly Boosting the Margin in Combinatorial and Non-decomposable Metrics. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
2022	Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; . RFFNet: Large-Scale Interpretable Kernel Methods via Random Fourier Features. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.06410
2022	Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; . Split conformal prediction for dependent data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.15885
2022	Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Conditionally calibrated predictive distributions by probability-probability map: application to galaxy redshift estimation and probabilistic forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.14568
2022	Cerqueira, Andressa; Garcia, Nancy L; . Graphical construction of spatial Gibbs random graphs. Journal of Mathematical Physics
2022	de Oliveira, Fabiana Luci; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Noli, Ana Fernanda; . Decision-Making Process of Supreme Court in Brazil's Democratic Transition (1978-1988). Braz. J. Empirical Legal Stud.
2022	Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Calibrated predictive distributions via diagnostics for conditional coverage. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.14568
2022	Masserano, Luca; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Kuusela, Mikael; Lee, Ann B; . Simulator-based inference with waldo: Confidence regions by leveraging prediction algorithms and posterior estimators for inverse problems. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.15680
2022	Viana, Yasmin; Amorim, Thiago Orion Simões; de Castro, Franciele Rezende; Wedekin, Leonardo; Paro, Alexandre Douglas; Montoril, Michel Helcias; Rossi-Santos, Marcos; Andriolo, Artur; . Are dolphins modulating whistles in interspecific group contexts?. Bioacoustics
2022	Feronato, Sofia Galvão; Silva, Maria Luiza Matos; Izbicki, Rafael; Farias, Ticiana DJ; Shigunov, Patricia; Dallagiovanna, Bruno; Passetti, Fabio; Dos Santos, Hellen Geremias; . Selecting genetic variants and interactions associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a group LASSO approach. Journal of Personalized Medicine
2022	Shimizu, Gilson Y; Izbicki, Rafael; de Carvalho, Andre CPLF; . Model interpretation using improved local regression with variable importance. arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.05371
2022	Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; . RFFNet: Scalable and interpretable kernel methods via Random Fourier Features. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.06410
2021	Montoril, Michel H; Correia, Leandro T; Migon, Helio S; . Dynamic Weights in Gaussian Mixture Models: A Bayesian Approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.03395
2021	Shimizu, Gilson Yuuji; . Bandas de predição usando densidade condicional estimada e um modelo LDA com covariáveis..
2021	Comito, Mateus Borges; Izbicki, Rafael; . Estudo de pessoas desaparecidas através de técnicas de aprendizado de máquina. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI
2021	Ferreira, Ricardo Felipe; . Concentration bounds for plug-in estimator of directed information. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory
2021	Inacio, Marco; Izbicki, Rafael; Gyires-Toth, Balint; . Distance assessment and analysis of high-dimensional samples using variational autoencoders. Information Sciences
2021	Comito, Mateus Borges; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael; Trecenti, Julio Adolfo Zucon; . Causas de desaparecimento no Estado de São Paulo entre 2013 e 2014: uma análise automatizada de boletins de ocorrência.
2021	de Carvalho Ceregatti, Rafael; Izbicki, Rafael; Bueno Salasar, Luis Ernesto; . WIKS: a general Bayesian nonparametric index for quantifying differences between two populations: R. de Carvalho Ceregatti et al.. Test
2021	Zhao, David; Dalmasso, Niccolò; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Diagnostics for conditional density models and Bayesian inference algorithms. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
2021	Valle, Denis; Shimizu, Gilson; Izbicki, Rafael; Maracahipes, Leandro; Silverio, Divino Vicente; Paolucci, Lucas N; Jameel, Yusuf; Brando, Paulo; . The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model with covariates (LDAcov): A case study on the effect of fire on species composition in Amazonian forests. Ecology and evolution
2021	Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael B; GONG, RUOBIN; KADANE, JOSEPH B; SCHERVISH, MARK J; SEIDENFELD, TEDDY; STERN, RAFAEL B; . Deceptive Credences. Ergo an Open Access Journal of Philosophy
2021	Montoril, Michel H; Correia, Leandro T; Migon, Helio S; . Bayesian estimation of dynamic weights in Gaussian mixture models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.03395
2021	Dey, Biprateep; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; Zhao, David; Rau, Markus Michael; Malz, Alex I; . Re-calibrating photometric redshift probability distributions using feature-space regression. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.15209
2021	Izbicki, Rafael; Bastos, Leonardo S; Izbicki, Meyer; Lopes, Hedibert F; Dos Santos, Tiago Mendonça; . How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo?. Clinics
2021	Dalmasso, Niccolo; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: Bridging classical statistics and machine learning in simulation and uncertainty quantification. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.03920
2021	McNeely, Trey; Vincent, Galen; Izbicki, Rafael; Wood, Kimberly M; Lee, Ann B; . Identifying Distributional Differences in Convective Evolution Prior to Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones. arXiv preprint arXiv:2109.12029
2021	Montoril, Michel H; Pinheiro, AluÃsio; Vidakovic, Brani; . Wavelet-based estimation of power densities of size-biased data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2112.12895
2021	Cabezas, Luben Miguel; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Previsão em modelos filogenéticos. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI
2021	Yasuda, Luri Ikeda; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Métodos de simulação para o cálculo de integrais com aplicações à Inferência Bayesiana. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI
2021	Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Stern, Rafael B; Gong, Ruobin; Seidenfeld, Teddy; . Deceptive Credences.
2021	Massoni, Gabriela; . Análise de textos por meio de processos estocásticos na representação word2vec.
2021	Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; da Paz, Rosineide Fernando; Rodrigues, Talisson; Mesquita, Esequiel; . Clustering ultrasonic waves propagation time: A hierarchical polynomial semiparametric approach. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
2021	IÓCA, Mariana Pavan; ZUANETTI, Daiane Aparecida; . Selection of SNP markers: Analyzing GAW17 data using different methodologies. Brazilian Journal of Biometrics
2021	Vilar, Giovanna Vendeiro; Esteves, Luis Gustavo; Costa, Mariana Almeida; Hirota, Renata Massami; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Emergência e desenvolvimento da ação manipulativa de apertar em bebês de 1 a 3 meses de idade”.
2021	Takara, Victor Junji; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; . Inferência para o modelo Bernoulli na presença de adversários.
2021	Ye, Jiachen; Peron, Thomas; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen; Ji, Peng; . Performance measures after perturbations in the presence of inertia. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
2021	Kittel, Tim; Ciemer, Catrin; Lotfi, Nastaran; Peron, Thomas; Rodrigues, Francisco; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V; . Evolving climate network perspectives on global surface air temperature effects of ENSO and strong volcanic eruptions. The European Physical Journal Special Topics
2021	Marinho, Caique Barros; Santos, Gabriel Vinícius dos; Esteves, Luís Gustavo; Tótolo, Pedro Luis Freitas; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto “Avaliação dos fatores do envelhecimento da população que afetam a administração de medicamentos e desenvolvimento de soluções tecnológicas”.
2021	Stegehuis, Clara; Peron, Thomas; . Network processes on clique-networks with high average degree: the limited effect of higher-order structure. Journal of Physics: Complexity
2021	Martínez-Martínez, CT; Méndez-Bermúdez, JA; Peron, Thomas; Moreno, Yamir; . Statistical properties of mutualistic-competitive random networks. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
2021	Eroglu, Deniz; Peron, Thomas K; Marwan, Norbert; Rodrigues, Francisco A; Costa, Luciano da F; Sebek, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Z; Kurths, Jurgen; . Entropy of weighted recurrence plots (vol 90, 042919, 2014). PHYSICAL REVIEW E
2021	Peron, Thomas; . Discordant synchronization patterns on directed networks of identical phase oscillators with attractive and repulsive couplings. Physical Review E
2021	Ye, Jiachen; Peron, Thomas; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen; Ji, Peng; . Performance Analysis of Perturbed Kuramoto Model with Inertia.