| 2025 | Cabezas, Luben MC; Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Regression trees for fast and adaptive prediction intervals. Information Sciences |
| 2025 | Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Adding imprecision to hypotheses: A Bayesian framework for testing practical significance in nonparametric settings. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning |
| 2025 | Fröhlich, Alek; Ramos, Thiago; Dos Santos, Gustavo Motta Cabello; Buzatto, Isabela Panzeri Carlotti; Izbicki, Rafael; Tiezzi, Daniel Guimaraes; . PersonalizedUS: Interpretable Breast Cancer Risk Assessment with Local Coverage Uncertainty Quantification. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence |
| 2025 | Valle, Denis; Haneda, Leo; Izbicki, Rafael; Kamimura, Renan Akio; de Azevedo, Bruna Pereira; Gomes, Silvio HM; Sanchez, Arthur; Silva, Carlos A; Almeida, Danilo RA; . Nonparametric quantification of uncertainty in multistep upscaling approaches: A case study on estimating forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon. Science of Remote Sensing |
| 2025 | Dorigo, Tommaso; Doro, Michele; Aehle, Max; Gauger, Nicolas R; Awais, Muhammad; Izbicki, Rafael; Kieseler, Jan; Masserano, Luca; Nardi, Federico; Vergara, Luis Recabarren; . On the Utility Function of Experiments in Fundamental Science. arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.13544 |
| 2025 | Corrêa, Fernando; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Stern, Julio Michael; . Kullback-Leibler Consistency of $ p $-dimensional P\'olya Tree Posteriors and Differential Entropy Estimation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.02950 |
| 2025 | Cabezas, Luben; Santos, Vagner S; Ramos, Thiago R; Izbicki, Rafael; . Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Scores: A Unified Approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.06995 |
| 2025 | Motta, Flávia Castro; Montoril, Michel H; . A Bayesian estimation approach for the wavelet-based mixture regression. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation |
| 2025 | Santos, Milene Regina dos; Izbicki, Rafael; . Expertise-based weighting for regression models with noisy labels. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation |
| 2024 | Shimizu, Gilson Y; Izbicki, Rafael; Valle, Denis; . A new LDA formulation with covariates. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation |
| 2024 | Xiao, Yang; Soares, Guilherme; Bastos, Leonardo; Izbicki, Rafael; Moraga, Paula; . Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information. medRxiv |
| 2024 | Dalmasso, Niccolò; Masserano, Luca; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: Bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference. Electronic Journal of Statistics |
| 2024 | Dheur, Victor; Bosser, Tanguy; Izbicki, Rafael; Ben Taieb, Souhaib; . Distribution-free conformal joint prediction regions for neural marked temporal point processes. Machine Learning |
| 2024 | Masserano, Luca; Shen, Alex; Doro, Michele; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Classification under nuisance parameters and generalized label shift in likelihood-free inference. arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.05330 |
| 2024 | Grivol, Gustavo; Izbicki, Rafael; Okuno, Alex A; Stern, Rafael B; . Flexible conditional density estimation for time series. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| 2024 | Seidenfeld, Teddy; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Stern, Rafael B; . Finite Additivity, Complete Additivity, and the Comparative Principle. Erkenntnis |
| 2024 | Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . PROTEST: Nonparametric Testing of Hypotheses Enhanced by Experts' Utility Judgements. arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.05655 |
| 2024 | Gomes, Izadora de Geus Monteiro; Peixoto, Nara Gabriela de Mesquita; Monteiro, Leonardo Marques; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Influência do ambiente construído nos níveis sonoros e percepção de conforto acústico nos espaços públicos na cidade de São Paulo". |
| 2024 | Campos, Bruno Kinsch de Lara; Gallo, Daniel Monteiro; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Multilateralismo, regionalismo e democracia: o uso das estratégias de shaming nas missões de observação eleitoral da OEA". |
| 2024 | Silva, João Flávio Andrade; Izbicki, Rafael; Bastos, Leonardo S; Soares, Guilherme P; . Monitoring viral infections in severe acute respiratory syndrome patients in Brazil. International Workshop on Statistical Modelling |
| 2024 | Cabezas, Luben; Soares, Guilherme P; Ramos, Thiago R; Stern, Rafael B; Izbicki, Rafael; . Distribution-Free Calibration of Statistical Confidence Sets. arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.19368 |
| 2024 | Nakazono, L; R Valença, R; Soares, G; Izbicki, Rafael; Ivezić, Željko; R Lima, EV; T Hirata, NS; Sodré Jr, L; Overzier, Roderik; Almeida-Fernandes, F; . The Quasar Catalogue for S-PLUS DR4 (QuCatS) and the estimation of photometric redshifts. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |
| 2024 | Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; . Nonparametric FBST for Validating Linear Models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.15608 |
| 2024 | Valle, Denis; Leite, Rodrigo; Izbicki, Rafael; Silva, Carlos; Haneda, Leo; . Local uncertainty maps for land-use/land-cover classification without remote sensing and modeling work using a class-conditional conformal approach. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation |
| 2024 | Ramos, Thiago; Schuller, Rodrigo Loro; Okuno, Alex Akira; Nissenbaum, Lucas; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . BlockBoost: Scalable and Efficient Blocking through Boosting. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics |
| 2024 | Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; . Split conformal prediction and non-exchangeable data. Journal of Machine Learning Research |
| 2024 | Assunção, Gabriel O; Izbicki, Rafael; Prates, Marcos O; . Is Augmentation Effective in Improving Prediction in Imbalanced Datasets?. Journal of Data Science |
| 2024 | Lassance, Rodrigo FL; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Adding imprecision to hypotheses: A Bayesian framework for testing practical significance in nonparametric settings. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING |
| 2023 | Coscrato, Victor; Inácio, Marco HA; Botari, Tiago; Izbicki, Rafael; . NLS: An accurate and yet easy-to-interpret prediction method. Neural Networks |
| 2023 | Cerqueira, Andressa; Levina, Elizaveta; . A pseudo-likelihood approach to community detection in weighted networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.05909 |
| 2023 | Dalmasso, Niccolo; Masserano, Luca; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: Confidence sets with correct conditional coverage. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.03920 |
| 2023 | Motta, Flávia Castro; Montoril, Michel Helcias; . Identifying regime switches through Bayesian wavelet estimation: evidence from flood detection in the Taquari River Valley. arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.14828 |
| 2023 | Valle, Denis; Izbicki, Rafael; Leite, Rodrigo Vieira; . Quantifying uncertainty in land-use land-cover classification using conformal statistics. Remote Sensing of Environment |
| 2023 | Cabezas, Luben MC; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Hierarchical clustering: Visualization, feature importance and model selection. Applied Soft Computing |
| 2023 | Polo, Felipe Maia; Izbicki, Rafael; Lacerda Jr, Evanildo Gomes; Ibieta-Jimenez, Juan Pablo; Vicente, Renato; . A unified framework for dataset shift diagnostics. Information Sciences |
| 2023 | McNeely, Trey; Vincent, Galen; Wood, Kimberly M; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Detecting distributional differences in labeled sequence data with application to tropical cyclone satellite imagery. The Annals of Applied Statistics |
| 2023 | Esteves, Luís G; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; . Logical coherence in Bayesian simultaneous three-way hypothesis tests. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning |
| 2023 | Dorigo, Tommaso; Aehle, Max; Arcaro, Cornelia; Awais, Muhammad; Bergamaschi, Fabiola; Donini, Julien; Doro, Michele; Gauger, Nicolas R; Izbicki, Rafael; Kieseler, Jan; . Toward the End-To-End Optimization of the SWGO Array Layout. arXiv e-prints |
| 2023 | Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey; Andrews, Brett; Lee, Ann; Izbicki, Rafael; . Calibrated Predictive Distributions. APS April Meeting Abstracts |
| 2023 | dos Santos, Milene Regina; Izbicki, Rafael; . Expertise-based weighting for regression models with noisy labels. arXiv e-prints |
| 2023 | Assunção, Gabriel O; Izbicki, Rafael; Prates, Marcos O; . Is augmentation effective to improve prediction in imbalanced text datasets?. arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.10283 |
| 2023 | Nakazono, Lilianne; Ruiz, Raquel; Soares, Gabriela; Izbicki, Rafael; Ivezic, Zeljko; Mendes de Oliveira, Claudia; . Redshift estimation of quasars using 12-band photometry from S-PLUS. American Astronomical Society Meeting Abstracts |
| 2023 | Izbicki, Rafael; Cabezas, Luben; Colugnatti, Fernando AB; Lassance, Rodrigo FL; de Souza, Altay AL; Stern, Rafael B; . REACT to NHST: Sensible conclusions to meaningful hypotheses. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.09112 |
| 2023 | Cabezas, Luben Miguel Cruz; Otto, Mateus Piovezan; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Toward local and valid uncertainty estimation in machine learning. Livro de Resumos |
| 2023 | Csillag, Daniel; Paes, Lucas Monteiro; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; Schuller, Rodrigo; Seixas, Roberto B; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . AmnioML: amniotic fluid segmentation and volume prediction with uncertainty quantification. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence |
| 2023 | Dorigo, Tommaso; Aehle, Max; Donini, Julien; Doro, Michele; Gauger, Nicolas R; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann; Masserano, Luca; Nardi, Federico; Shen, Alexander; . End-to-end optimization of the layout of a gamma ray observatory. arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.01857 |
| 2023 | Belitsky, Ian Tikkanen; Kodono, Juliana Tiemi Oda; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Alves, Tamires Vieira; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Análise quimiométrica de seletividade nos sítios ativos de cisteíno proteases da família da papaína para o estudo de substâncias antiparasitárias e antineoplásicas". |
| 2023 | Reis, Victor Candido; Izbicki, Rafael; . Spectral smooth tests for goodness-of-fit. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.06601 |
| 2023 | Silva, Alexandre Felix da; Maciel, Emanuel Hark; Aragão, Emerson da Silva; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Fossaluza, Victor; . Relatório de análise estatística sobre o projeto" Risco de perda em ações judiciais". |
| 2022 | Stern, Julio Michael; Pereira, Carlos Alberto de Braganca; Lauretto, Marcelo de Souza; Esteves, Luis Gustavo; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Diniz, Marcio Alves; Borges, Wagner de Souza; . The e-value and the full Bayesian significance test: logical properties and philosophical consequences. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.08010 |
| 2022 | Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; . RFFNet: Scalable and interpretable kernel methods via Random Fourier Features. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.06410 |
| 2022 | Reimann, Bernardo F; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Julio M; Stern, Rafael B; Esteves, Luis G; . Logical coherence in Bayesian simultaneous three-way hypothesis tests. arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.01495 |
| 2022 | Masserano, Luca; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Kuusela, Mikael; Lee, Ann B; . Simulation-based inference with WALDO: Perfectly calibrated confidence regions using any prediction or posterior estimation algorithm. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.15680 |
| 2022 | Teeselink, Bouke Klein; van Dolder, Dennie; van den Assem, Martijn J; Dana, Jason; . High-Stakes Failures of Backward Induction: Evidence from" The Price Is Right". |
| 2022 | Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . The Value Provided by a Scientific Explanation. Reflections on the Foundations of Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of Teddy Seidenfeld |
| 2022 | Inacio, M; Izbicki, R; Lopes, D; Diniz, MA; Salasar, LE; Ferreira, JCP; . What If the Forecaster Knew? Assessing Forecast Reliability via Simulation. Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics |
| 2022 | Izbicki, Rafael; Shimizu, Gilson; Stern, Rafael B; . Cd-split and hpd-split: Efficient conformal regions in high dimensions. Journal of Machine Learning Research |
| 2022 | Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Calibrated predictive distributions via diagnostics for conditional coverage. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.14568 |
| 2022 | Martins, Thomas Correa; Diniz, Marcio Alves; Montoril, Michel Helcias; . Bayesian inference for term structure models. |
| 2022 | Otto, Mateus P; Izbicki, Rafael; . RFFNet: Large-Scale Interpretable Kernel Methods via Random Fourier Features. arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.06410 |
| 2022 | Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; Ramos, Thiago; Vitor Romano, João; . Split conformal prediction for dependent data. arXiv e-prints |
| 2022 | Csillag, Daniel; Piazza, Carolina; Ramos, Thiago; Romano, João Vitor; Oliveira, Roberto I; Orenstein, Paulo; . ExactBoost: Directly Boosting the Margin in Combinatorial and Non-decomposable Metrics. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics |
| 2022 | Cerqueira, Andressa; Garcia, Nancy L; . Graphical construction of spatial Gibbs random graphs. Journal of Mathematical Physics |
| 2022 | de Oliveira, Fabiana Luci; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Noli, Ana Fernanda; . Decision-Making Process of Supreme Court in Brazil's Democratic Transition (1978-1988). Braz. J. Empirical Legal Stud. |
| 2022 | Feronato, Sofia Galvão; Silva, Maria Luiza Matos; Izbicki, Rafael; Farias, Ticiana DJ; Shigunov, Patrícia; Dallagiovanna, Bruno; Passetti, Fabio; Dos Santos, Hellen Geremias; . Selecting genetic variants and interactions associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a group LASSO approach. Journal of Personalized Medicine |
| 2022 | da Silva Ferreira, Clécio; Montoril, Michel H; Paula, Gilberto A; . Partially linear models with p-order autoregressive skew-normal errors. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| 2022 | Shimizu, Gilson Y; Izbicki, Rafael; de Carvalho, Andre CPLF; . Model interpretation using improved local regression with variable importance. arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.05371 |
| 2022 | Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael B; . Learning and total evidence with imprecise probabilities. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning |
| 2022 | de Oliveira, Fabiana Luci; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Noli, Ana Fernanda; . Processo decisório do Supremo Tribunal Federal na transição democrática brasileira (1978-1988). Revista de Estudos Empíricos em Direito |
| 2022 | Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Andrews, Brett; Newman, Jeffrey; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann; . Calibrated predictive distributions for photometric redshifts. Machine Learning for Astrophysics, proceedings of the Thirty-ninth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2022) |
| 2022 | Fumis, André Americano de Freitas; Stern, Rafael Bassi; Fossaluza, Victor; Lima, Vitor Hugo Vieira de; . Relatório de Análise Estatística sobre o Projeto Uma bioarqueologia da infância: apontamentos sobre a dieta infantil entre sambaquieiros através da análise de isótopos estáveis de δ15N e δ13C”. |
| 2022 | Masserano, Luca; Dorigo, Tommaso; Izbicki, Rafael; Kuusela, Mikael; Lee, Ann B; . Simulator-based inference with WALDO: Confidence regions by leveraging prediction algorithms and posterior estimators for inverse problems. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.15680 |
| 2022 | Viana, Yasmin; Amorim, Thiago Orion Simões; de Castro, Franciele Rezende; Wedekin, Leonardo; Paro, Alexandre Douglas; Montoril, Michel Helcias; Rossi-Santos, Marcos; Andriolo, Artur; . Are dolphins modulating whistles in interspecific group contexts?. Bioacoustics |
| 2022 | Lassance, Rodrigo; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Avoiding the Pitfalls of Testing Sharp Hypotheses: The Nonparametric Case. |
| 2022 | Dey, Biprateep; Zhao, David; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Conditionally calibrated predictive distributions by probability-probability map: application to galaxy redshift estimation and probabilistic forecasting. arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.14568 |
| 2021 | Inacio, Marco; Izbicki, Rafael; Gyires-Tóth, Bálint; . Distance assessment and analysis of high-dimensional samples using variational autoencoders. Information Sciences |
| 2021 | de Carvalho Ceregatti, Rafael; Izbicki, Rafael; Bueno Salasar, Luis Ernesto; . WIKS: a general Bayesian nonparametric index for quantifying differences between two populations. Test |
| 2021 | Montoril, Michel H; Correia, Leandro T; Migon, Helio S; . Bayesian estimation of dynamic weights in Gaussian mixture models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.03395 |
| 2021 | Zhao, David; Dalmasso, Niccolò; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Diagnostics for conditional density models and Bayesian inference algorithms. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence |
| 2021 | Comito, Mateus Borges; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael; Trecenti, Julio; . CAUSAS DE DESAPARECIMENTO NO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO ENTRE 2013 E 2014: UMA ANÁLISE AUTOMATIZADA DE BOLETINS DE OCORRÊNCIA. Revista da Defensoria Pública do Estado de São Paulo |
| 2021 | Cabezas, Luben Miguel; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Previsão em modelos filogenéticos. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI |
| 2021 | Shimizu, Gilson Yuuji; . Bandas de predià § ã o usando densidade condicional estimada e um modelo LDA com covariá veis. |
| 2021 | Dey, Biprateep; Newman, Jeffrey A; Andrews, Brett H; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; Zhao, David; Rau, Markus Michael; Malz, Alex I; . Re-calibrating photometric redshift probability distributions using feature-space regression. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.15209 |
| 2021 | McNeely, Trey; Vincent, Galen; Izbicki, Rafael; Wood, Kimberly M; Lee, Ann B; . Identifying Distributional Differences in Convective Evolution Prior to Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones. arXiv preprint arXiv:2109.12029 |
| 2021 | Izbicki, Rafael; Bastos, Leonardo S; Izbicki, Meyer; Lopes, Hedibert F; Santos, Tiago Mendonça dos; . How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo?. Clinics |
| 2021 | Dalmasso, Niccolo; Zhao, David; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; . Likelihood-free frequentist inference: Bridging classical statistics and machine learning in simulation and uncertainty quantification. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.03920 |
| 2021 | Yasuda, Luri Ikeda; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . Métodos de simulação para o cálculo de integrais com aplicações à Inferência Bayesiana. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI |
| 2021 | Montoril, Michel H; Pinheiro, Aluísio; Vidakovic, Brani; . Wavelet-based estimation of power densities of size-biased data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2112.12895 |
| 2021 | Gong, Ruobin; Kadane, Joseph B; Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael B; GONG, RUOBIN; KADANE, JOSEPH B; SCHERVISH, MARK J; SEIDENFELD, TEDDY; STERN, RAFAEL B; . Deceptive Credences. Ergo an Open Access Journal of Philosophy |
| 2021 | Valle, Denis; Shimizu, Gilson; Izbicki, Rafael; Maracahipes, Leandro; Silverio, Divino Vicente; Paolucci, Lucas N; Jameel, Yusuf; Brando, Paulo; . The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model with covariates (LDAcov): A case study on the effect of fire on species composition in Amazonian forests. Ecology and Evolution |
| 2021 | Ferreira, Ricardo Felipe; . Concentration bounds for plug-in estimator of directed information. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory |
| 2021 | Montoril, Michel H; Correia, Leandro T; Migon, Helio S; . Dynamic Weights in Gaussian Mixture Models: A Bayesian Approach. arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.03395 |
| 2021 | Comito, Mateus Borges; Izbicki, Rafael; . Estudo de pessoas desaparecidas através de técnicas de aprendizado de máquina. XXVII CIC e XII CIDTI |
| 2020 | Chiann, Chang; Montoril, Michel Helcias; Morettin, Pedro Alberto; . Estimação do número de reprodução da pandemia por covid-19 em São Paulo. Revista Brasileira de Estatística |
| 2020 | Pezzott, George Lucas Moraes; Salasar, Luis Ernesto Bueno; Leite, José Galvão; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; . A note on identifiability and maximum likelihood estimation for a heterogeneous capture-recapture model. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods |
| 2020 | Izbicki, Rafael; Shimizu, Gilson; Stern, Rafael Bassi; . CD-split: efficient conformal regions in high dimensions. arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.12778 |
| 2020 | Borges, Leonardo M; Reis, Victor Candido; Izbicki, Rafael; . Schrödinger's phenotypes: Herbarium specimens show two‐dimensional images are both good and (not so) bad sources of morphological data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| 2020 | Coscrato, Victor; de Almeida Inacio, Marco Henrique; Izbicki, Rafael; . The NN-Stacking: Feature weighted linear stacking through neural networks. Neurocomputing |
| 2020 | Cerqueira, Andressa; Leonardi, Florencia; . Estimation of the number of communities in the stochastic block model. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory |
| 2020 | Cerqueira, Andressa; Garivier, Aurélien; Leonardi, Florencia; . A note on perfect simulation for Exponential Random Graph Models. ESAIM: Probability and Statistics |
| 2020 | Stern, Rafael B; d'Alencar, Matheus Silva; Uscapi, Yanina L; Gubitoso, Marco D; Roque, Antonio C; Helene, André F; Piemonte, Maria Elisa Pimentel; . Goalkeeper game: a new assessment tool for prediction of gait performance under complex condition in people with Parkinson's disease. Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience |
| 2020 | MUSETTI, M; IZBICKI, R; . Combinando Métodos de Aprendizado Supervisionado para a Melhoria da Previsão do Redshift de Galáxias. TEMA (São Carlos) |
| 2020 | Coscrato, Victor; Izbicki, Rafael; Stern, Rafael B; . Agnostic tests can control the type I and type II errors simultaneously. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics |
| 2020 | de Almeida Inácio, Marco Henrique; Izbicki, Rafael; Salasar, Luis Ernesto; . Comparing two populations using Bayesian Fourier series density estimation. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation |
| 2020 | Dalmasso, Niccolo; Lee, Ann; Izbicki, Rafael; Pospisil, Taylor; Kim, Ilmun; Lin, Chieh-An; . Validation of approximate likelihood and emulator models for computationally intensive simulations. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics |
| 2020 | Schervish, Mark J; Seidenfeld, Teddy; Stern, Rafael B; Kadane, Joseph B; . What finite-additivity can add to decision theory. Statistical Methods & Applications |
| 2020 | Fonseca, Rodney; Ludwig, Guilherme; Montoril, Michel; Pinheiro, Aluísio; . Nonparametric methods for detecting change in Multitemporal SAR/PolSAR Satellite Data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.05764 |
| 2020 | Schmidt, SJ; Malz, AI; Soo, JYH; Almosallam, IA; Brescia, Massimo; Cavuoti, STEFANO; Cohen-Tanugi, Johann; Connolly, AJ; DeRose, J; Freeman, PE; . Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |
| 2020 | Dalmasso, Niccolò; Pospisil, Taylor; Lee, Ann B; Izbicki, Rafael; Freeman, Peter E; Malz, Alex I; . Conditional density estimation tools in python and R with applications to photometric redshifts and likelihood-free cosmological inference. Astronomy and Computing |
| 2020 | Dalmasso, Niccolo; Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann; . Confidence sets and hypothesis testing in a likelihood-free inference setting. International Conference on Machine Learning |
| 2020 | Izbicki, Rafael; dos Santos, Tiago Mendonça; . Aprendizado de máquina: uma abordagem estatística. |
| 2020 | Izbicki, Rafael; Diniz, Márcio A; Bastos, Leonardo S; . Sensitivity and specificity in prevalence studies: The importance of considering uncertainty. Clinics |
| 2020 | de Almeida Inácio, Marco Henrique; Izbicki, Rafael; Lourenço Lopes, Danilo; Salasar, Luis Ernesto; Poloniato, João; Alves Diniz, Marcio; . Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup. arXiv e-prints |
| 2020 | Izbicki, Rafael; Lee, Ann B; Pospisil, Taylor; . NNKCDE: Nearest neighbor kernel conditional density estimation. Astrophysics Source Code Library |
| 2020 | Inácio, Marco Henrique de Almeida; Izbicki, Rafael; Lopes, Danilo Lourenço; Salasar, Luis Ernesto; Poloniato, João; Diniz, Marcio Alves; . Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup. arXiv preprint arXiv:2008.13005 |
| 2020 | Botari, Tiago; Hvilshøj, Frederik; Izbicki, Rafael; de Carvalho, Andre CPLF; . MeLIME: meaningful local explanation for machine learning models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2009.05818 |
| 2020 | Ferreira, Ricardo F; Gallo, Sandro; Paccaut, Frédéric; . Non-regular g-measures and variable length memory chains. Nonlinearity |
| 2020 | Orofino, Dulce Helena Gonçalves; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert; Leite, Maria de Fatima Moreira Pereira; Farias, Carla Verona Barreto; Ramos, Thiago Moreira; e Silva, Leticia Machado Lima; Oliva, Raffaela Andrade; Oliveira, Raquel de Vasconcellos Carvalhaes; . Reliability of Echocardiographic Measurements in Infants Exposed to Zika Virus.. |
| 2020 | Orofino, Dulce Helena Gonçalves; Passos, Sonia Regina Lambert; Pone, Sheila Moura; Pone, Marcos Vinícius da Silva; Aguiar, Elisa Barroso de; Araújo, Igo Oliveira de; Ramos, Thiago Moreira; Silva, Letícia Machado Lima E; Oliveira, Bruna Menezes de; Silva, Luan Noé da; . 24-hour Holter findings in infants with in-utero exposure to the Zika virus: a series of cases. Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo |
| 2020 | Inácio, Marco Henrique de Almeida; . Conditional independence testing, two sample comparison and density estimation using neural networks. |
| 2020 | Santos, HG; Nascimento, CF; Izbicki, R; Duarte, YAO; Chiavegatto Filho, ADP; . Machine learning for predictive analyses in health: an example of an application to predict death in the elderly in Sao Paulo, Brazil (vol 35, e00050818, 2019). CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA |
| 2020 | Stern, R; d'Alencar, M; Uscapi, Y; Gubitoso, M; Roque, A; Helene, A; Piemonte, M; . Goalkeeper Game: a new assessment tool for prediction of gait performance under complex condition in people with Parkinson's disease: 1432. Movement Disorders |
Research
At the SMaLL research group, our work lies at the intersection of statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. We are driven by a dual mission: to push the boundaries of AI by developing novel, powerful, and principled methods, and to solve pressing real-world problems across a range of scientific and societal domains.
Our research is grounded in a deep understanding of statistical theory, which allows us to build machine learning models that are not only accurate but also reliable, interpretable, and robust. We focus on three core areas: developing trustworthy AI, advancing core ML methodologies, and applying these innovations to achieve interdisciplinary impact.
Trustworthy & Reliable AI: Uncertainty, Interpretability, and Calibration
A central theme of our research is moving beyond simple point predictions to create AI systems that understand and communicate their own uncertainty. We believe this is essential for applications in science, medicine, and beyond.
Uncertainty Quantification & Conformal Prediction:
We develop cutting-edge techniques for creating statistically valid prediction intervals and confidence sets. Our work, including methods like CD-split and EPICSCore, provides rigorous, assumption-free uncertainty guarantees via conformal methods, even for complex, high-dimensional data.Interpretability and Explainable AI (XAI):
We design methods to open the “black box” of complex models like neural networks. Our work on meaningful local explanations (e.g., MeLIME, RFFNet, and NLS) helps users understand why a model makes a particular decision, fostering trust and enabling model debugging.Model Diagnostics and Calibration:
We create tools for rigorously validating and diagnosing machine learning models. This includes techniques for likelihood-free inference (e.g., WALDO, LF2I) and diagnostics for conditional density models (LaDaR), ensuring reliable and well-calibrated probabilistic outputs.
Core Methodological Advances in Machine Learning
Our foundational work aims to create more flexible, powerful, and efficient learning algorithms.
Conditional Density Estimation (CDE):
A cornerstone of our research is the development of nonparametric methods for estimating full outcome distributions given features. Our FlexCode procedure, used by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, is one such example applied in astronomy and beyond.Network Science & Graph-based Learning:
We develop methods for community detection, hypothesis testing on graphs, and network modeling, with applications ranging from EEG brain data to social networks.High-Dimensional & Nonparametric Methods:
We specialize in “large ( p ), small ( n )” problems, using spectral series, wavelets, and kernel methods. We also design efficient algorithms like ExactBoost and BlockBoost for challenging ML tasks.Modern AI Architectures:
We contribute to model ensembling (NN-Stacking), scalable kernel methods (RFFNet), and the use of variational autoencoders for high-dimensional hypothesis testing.
Interdisciplinary Impact: AI in Action
We are passionate about applying our methods to solve concrete problems. Our collaborations span:
Astronomy & Cosmology:
Photo-z estimation, galaxy classification, and likelihood-free cosmological inference.Healthcare & Medicine:
Predicting mortality, diagnosing dementia and Parkinson’s (e.g., Goalkeeper Game), modeling infectious diseases, and AI tools for breast cancer risk (PersonalizedUS).Genetics & Genomics:
QTL mapping, feature selection for ALS studies, and interaction detection in complex traits.Ecology & Environmental Science:
Biodiversity quantification, species composition analysis (LDAcov), and population modeling.Law, Social Science & Sports Analytics:
Quantifying legal “loss of a chance”, modeling judicial decisions, and predicting football match outcomes.Materials Science:
Predicting properties of glass materials to guide new compositions, incorporating uncertainty for robust scientific inference.
Bayesian Foundations and Logical Coherence
Our approach is deeply Bayesian and committed to logical rigor. We believe this foundation leads to better, more coherent statistical and AI models.
Foundations of Inference:
We explore statistical decision theory, value of information, and imprecise probability models.Logically-Consistent Hypothesis Testing:
We develop coherent frameworks for multiple hypothesis testing that avoid contradictions. Tools like REACT support interpretable and practical alternatives to p-values.
Here is a list of our papers from the last 5 years — the complete list can be downloaded here, and the corresponding BibTeX entries are available here.